The ability to skilfully predict changes in the forex market can be the difference between a trader making profit and losses. To survive and thrive in the forex market, it’s important to grasp the factors that cause changes in the price value of currencies. These eight factors will help you forecast any changes in the forex market, allowing you to gain an edge in the trade.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
This is the measure of the prices of consumer products and services, such as food, transportation, automobiles, and healthcare. The measure helps a country keep a leash on prices by indicating when prices are rising (inflation) and when they are falling (deflation).
As a forex trader, you should keep updated with current inflation rates so as to accurately predict market movements. When inflation rates are stable, then you know you can go ahead and trade that currency pair. However, with high inflation rates, trading in that country’s currency will lead to losses.
Trade and Capital Flows
With forex trade being a global industry, the capital or trade flows in and out of a country can increase or decrease its currency value. Before predicting a currency’s performance, check whether its country is heavily dependent on exports, because in the event the exports drop, the currency will fall.
Capital flow is the money investors inject in the country. A currency value is hurt if investors flee from a country, for instance, due to political upheavals, lack of political goodwill, etc. It is thus an important factor when pondering how to predict forex markets.
Economic Growth
The performance of a country’s economy has an impact on its currency. Generally, a stronger economy creates the environment for a stronger currency. This is because; the higher the economic growth, the more opportunities to invest and conduct business in the country. This increases the demand for the local currency, lifting its value.
Interest Rates
Just like with economic growth, the more the interest rates of a country increase, the more its currency becomes stronger. This is because higher interest rates attract investors to save their money in bonds, stocks and savings accounts, causing an increase in demand for the local currency.
Geopolitics
Any disturbance of the political scene in a country causes a shake-up in the forex market. Since a currency is representative of a country, government politics and global relations will often determine its stability or its fall in value.
Mergers and Acquisitions
This factor is useful when predicting the short-term movements in forex trading. When a foreign country firm purchases or consolidates with a company in a particular country, it causes an economic ripple on the local country, causing a change in currency value. Any savvy forex trader will keep an eye open for this sort of movement and either lean in to capitalize on it or avoid investing, depending on the economic effect the move causes.
Natural Disasters
Catastrophic natural events on a country, e.g. earthquakes, hurricanes and floods usually impact a country’s currency, and not in a positive way. The aftermath of such events, from national apprehension to damaged infrastructure – which is the backbone of any country’s economy, to loss of life, causes a currency to depreciate.
Wars
Much like natural disasters, war can have a devastating impact on a country’s economy. Apart from the destruction of infrastructure, wars can devalue a country’s currency value by the ripple effect of the massive rebuilding efforts – which cost massive amounts of money. This is because reconstruction efforts require capital obtained from very low-interest rates, diminishing the value of the local currency.
Forex traders should be on top of any such development so as to be able to predict the direction of forex movement in the country. If a widespread war occurs in a country whose currency is part of your currency pair, then you’ll know to hold out until the economy stabilizes.
Summary
Forex traders have information at their disposal to assist them more than ever before. Taking calculated risks is the key to making maximum profit in the forex industry, and that starts with watching out for events that may rock their currency pair’s exchange rates. This information will enable you to strategize even better; by having an accurate idea of when to enter or exit the market.
